Earthquakes, COVID-19 and unemployment: three storms
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Compass© • • 0 Comments

Q1 2020: Tremors in a Shaky Economy in 2020

Analysis of economic indices in Q1-2020 for Puerto Rico
At the start of 2020, three storms at once hit the already distressed Puerto Rico economy. First, in January 2020, tremors throughout the Island, but more intensely in the South of PR, shook and destroyed historical buildings in urban centers, homes, roads, and other infrastructure installations that had not yet recovered from the disastrous Hurricane Maria of September 2017. Second, COVID-19 came like a tsunami, rushing over countries worldwide, through urban centers and attacking the elderly, overwhelming health systems globally. Lots of time for blame and accountability later, but on the front end, the only response leaders had was to issue stay-at-home orders and curfews and desperately try to secure personal protective equipment and ventilators. The Governor of Puerto Rico issued an Executive Order in March 15, 2020, whereby nonessential businesses were shut, people were ordered to stay at home with a daily curfew in place. And that led to the third storm of now more than 30,000 average weekly unemployment claims compared with 1,700 before. All three storms are feeding each other.

PR Needs to Be Rebuilt Once and For All
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Economic Pulse© • • 0 Comments

01/20 Puerto Rico Needs to Be Rebuilt Once and For All

January’s earthquake, if anything, marked a point of no return
Almost two and half years after the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria, PR faces yet another major reconstruction task, albeit this time, mostly constrained to its southern shores. The geographical limitation, however, does not make it any easier as the combination of unpreparedness, lack of any substantial domestic emergency funds and ongoing austerity measures creates a very real and dangerous scenario. Depending on federal approval for reconstruction funds is almost the same as depending on international aid for reconstruction and, in this sense, PR’s recovery looks a lot closer to El Salvador’s than the one that took place in Chile. Moreover, it is by now abundantly clear that we can ill afford another botched reconstruction effort as a second mass migration is likely to ensue. To avoid it, we will need investments that can trigger virtuous cycles of economic activity, not just short-term construction-related projects. Otherwise, we could remain stuck in our current predicament for a long time to come.