By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Economic Pulse© • • • 0 Comments

04/19 & 05/19: It’s—Again—the Economy!!! A forecast that defies imagination

The story of the PR economy is a “gripping whodunit”. Real economic growth for FY2018 reflects a record low -4.7% and a much worse revised growth of -3.0% for FY2017. Since 1948, the Island had never experienced such negative growth. Can we revert this course and reignite growth? Is there a political will to do so? How likely is engaging in aggressive fiscal policy when the bulk of public debt has not been renegotiated and financial markets are not too keen on lending bankrupt PR? Will growth take place without a plan and with austerity measures imposed by a US Congress-mandated fiscal board, which views its role as steward of fiscal discipline and not growth? The biggest threat to the Island’s recovery after Hurricane Maria is not only economic reconstruction and vision, but the acceleration of a declining, yet aging population. This issue of PR Economic Pulse analyzes the historical performance of our economy plus forecasts and risks for 2019 thru 2022.

A Race to Economic Recovery? What Q1-2019 economic indices tell us Strong business activity is not yet evident in Puerto Rico. Although all Q1-2019 quarterly indices are in positive territory, the path forward is still unclear. Construction, fueled by some federal disaster recovery funds, continues to have some wind under its wing. However, the consumer remains cautious as evidenced by continued decline in retail sales. Manufacturing is not a growth rod, although it is a stabilizing force. Banking continues profitable and reacting, rather than, providing stimulus with industrial and commercial loans. Where are we heading in the next 3 to 4 months? Are there signs of positive growth or not enough to pull the PR economy from its current depression? Will President Trump’s incorrect perception of a $91 billion package of inflated relief assistance change the outlook? This Compass attempts to provide answers to these questions. Q1/19
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Compass© • 0 Comments

Q1 2019: A Race to Economic Recovery?

What Q1-2019 economic indices tell us

Strong business activity is not yet evident in Puerto Rico. Although all Q1-2019 quarterly indices are in positive territory, the path forward is still unclear. Construction, fueled by some federal disaster recovery funds, continues to have some wind under its wing. However, the consumer remains cautious as evidenced by continued decline in retail sales. Manufacturing is not a growth rod, although it is a stabilizing force. Banking continues profitable and reacting, rather than, providing stimulus with industrial and commercial loans. Where are we heading in the next 3 to 4 months? Are there signs of positive growth or not enough to pull the PR economy from its current depression? Will President Trump’s incorrect perception of a $91 billion package of inflated relief assistance change the outlook? This Compass attempts to provide answers to these questions.