The 70% economy of Puerto Rico
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Compass© • • 0 Comments

Q2/2020 – The 70% Puerto Rico Economy

Analysis of economic indices in Q2-2020 for Puerto Rico
As of Q2-2020, the Puerto Rico economy is an average 70% of what the quarterly indices used to be in Q2-2006, just before the onset of the current economic depression. This reduction in the economy is miserable and far from “normal”. By all major metrics, most economic sectors have been adversely affected and the fear of a second wave of Covid-19 will cause even more financial hardship to households, municipal, and the central government in PR. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, unemployment was far worse than the official unemployment rate. The effects of the Covid-19 induced recession will likely be profound and long-lasting. Fear of the disease and uncertainty regarding prospects for a vaccine or whether immunity will endure impacts consumers and the goods and services they normally buy and sponsor. Many businesses are also strapped for cash reserves and cannot withstand continued lockdown or even partial lockdown. No doubt, joblessness will worsen and cause even casual work hard to come by.

Perfect Socio Economic Storm
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Economic Pulse© • • 0 Comments

04-05/2020: PR Economy Interrupted by COVID19

Witnessing a perfect socioeconomic storm

To date, there close to 6 million infected persons and 360,000 deaths globally caused by Covid-19. The US has posted 1.7 million infected persons and over 102,000 deaths. Covid-19 seems to have spared Puerto Rico with 3,486 infected persons and 131 deaths so far. Lockdowns and border closings for persons as well as trade have disrupted commerce and tourism. Reopening these economies will take time and international policies towards migration are reinforcing self-sufficiency and a more inward, self-reliance bias. Puerto Rico has gone through: a more than a decade-long recession, a government debt crisis, a devastating hurricane, earthquakes, and now the COVID-19 pandemic. As an island, Puerto Rico is more vulnerable to all these biases and requires more strategic, forward looking planning and execution than we had over the past 3 decades. Find out what is the short-term outlook for the global, US, and Puerto Rico economies. We know we are in trouble, but there are opportunities.

Questions that needs answers - The Voice of Heidie Calero, April 2, 2020
By H. Calero Consulting Group The Voice of Heidie Calero • • 0 Comments

Questions that needs answers – The Voice of Heidie Calero, April 2, 2020

We live in a new world and we need answers:

  • How are we preparing for the coming months of the pandemic?
  • Where is the mitigation money from Hurricane María?
  • How are businesses going to survive?
  • Where are the tests?
  • What is happening to our Pharmaceutical centers?
  • and many more…
We know that Puerto Rico can do it better… let’s make it better!!
Earthquakes, COVID-19 and unemployment: three storms
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Compass© • • 0 Comments

Q1 2020: Tremors in a Shaky Economy in 2020

Analysis of economic indices in Q1-2020 for Puerto Rico
At the start of 2020, three storms at once hit the already distressed Puerto Rico economy. First, in January 2020, tremors throughout the Island, but more intensely in the South of PR, shook and destroyed historical buildings in urban centers, homes, roads, and other infrastructure installations that had not yet recovered from the disastrous Hurricane Maria of September 2017. Second, COVID-19 came like a tsunami, rushing over countries worldwide, through urban centers and attacking the elderly, overwhelming health systems globally. Lots of time for blame and accountability later, but on the front end, the only response leaders had was to issue stay-at-home orders and curfews and desperately try to secure personal protective equipment and ventilators. The Governor of Puerto Rico issued an Executive Order in March 15, 2020, whereby nonessential businesses were shut, people were ordered to stay at home with a daily curfew in place. And that led to the third storm of now more than 30,000 average weekly unemployment claims compared with 1,700 before. All three storms are feeding each other.

Plan after the pandemic
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Economic Pulse© • 0 Comments

03/2020 …And Then Came the Day After Tomorrow

What awaits Puerto Rico after the COVID – 19 crisis

The Covid-19 pandemic is PR’s third major disruptive event in the last three years. Tempting as it may be to blame fate for this, it remains true that destiny is very much molded by our own decisions, actions and, in many cases, our downright procrastination. The ongoing health crisis created an unprecedented paralysis around the Western world, unseen even in the midst of the financial crisis, that stands to be the biggest black swan event in modern memory. For us, it could not have come at a worst moment: in the middle of ongoing debt renegotiations, a yet-to-be implemented debt adjustment plan, and an economy that was headed for negative growth in 2021 prior to the current crisis. Changes to the functioning of domestic markets will take place, some of them much-needed, but our fundamental challenges will be waiting for us once the pandemic is controlled. We need to have a plan and execute.