Tag: Puerto Rico Economic Pulse©

The world is going through its worst economic crisis in seventy years. The burst of the real estate bubble has already become a volcano eruption that is cracking the foundations of top financial institutions across the world. Even those who predicted the crisis have been baffled by its magnitude. Financial packages, bailouts, and rescue efforts have all failed to halt the lava that is mercilessly engulfing banks, investment companies, and even entire countries. This month’s newsletter reviews the economic events that led to the outbreak of this crisis, an event that is already a milestone in world’s economic history. This is a necessary step to understand what Puerto Rico should expect next year. Don’t miss Part II next month.

The winds of globalization are blowing harder and carving a new world. Foreign trade, formerly dominated by goods, is now featuring an unstoppable boom of services. Emerging and developing countries are fiercely fighting to excel as services exporters whether as R&D and financial centers, tourist destinations, or maritime ports, among others. The challenge has reached the shores of Puerto Rico and the island cannot dismiss it. With manufacturing faltering and agriculture on the brink of extinction, exporting services is a must for Puerto Rico. It is time to assess how the island can pull off this test and join the club of successful service exporters. Find out what is happening with services around the world and in Puerto Rico.

An important decision will take place next month in Puerto Rico. The upcoming general election could end gridlock between the legislative and executive powers. But will this be enough to restore growth in a weak economy? A US economic downturn is also affecting our economy. The island faces a saturated housing market, high unemployment, and low levels of growth. The principal challenge for the next 4 years will be the recovery of the island economy. Are all contenders’ proposals strong enough to restore growth in the long run? Or are they just proposing weak policies to mitigate short run problems while they are elected? This issue reviews the economic platforms of the four political parties in this election. Find out if their proposals address growth of our economy.

After a stormy and protracted debate, Puerto Rico finally unveiled a new industrial incentives law, effective July 1st, 2008. This was particularly important not only for the extension of industrial tax and other incentives for local and non-local businesses on the island but because it provided some certainty in a business environment pressed by recession and gridlock politics. The Puerto Rico economy achieved high rates of real economic growth from 1948 to 1973. Since then, it has been searching for growth. Will the new law be enough to compete globally? Will it boost local companies into exports? Find out whether the new law is a small step in the right direction to promote sector-specific activities where Puerto Rico could become competitive by world standards.

Rising food prices are causing severe hardship and suffering to many households in Puerto Rico’s feeble economy. Restaurants and food service businesses are also at risk not only as inflation continues skyrocketing but as local economic conditions continue to worsen. The number of commercial bankruptcy cases filed monthly has escalated. The world food crisis affects more than 22 countries with price increases of 10% for sugar and rice, 50% for vegetable oils, 20% for wheat, and 30% for cereals. Since Puerto Rico depends heavily on imports for its food, we estimate that this externally driven inflation has moved about 62,000 persons below the poverty level. This issue has more significance since our weak agricultural sector appears to have been left behind. Can Puerto Rico do something?

Consumers all over the world are feeling the heat of a surge in food prices. In addition to skyrocketing energy prices, credit crunch, economic slowdown, and other problems, consumers now have to deal with a sudden jump in the prices of many food products. Rice, bread, milk, vegetable oil, among others, are some of the products whose prices have literally soared. Food, which until recently was considered an easy affair for developed countries, has now joined the group of luxury goods.  According to the UN, higher food prices threaten more than 800 million persons already facing hunger. This issue examines some of the reasons that have triggered such a worldwide mess in food. Part II next month will address how this has affected Puerto Rico and options available to the island.

The almighty US dollar is indeed afflicted.  The American currency has lost ground against other strong currencies such as the euro, the sterling pound, the Canadian dollar, and even the Mexican peso. The woes of the dollar mirror the staggering situation of the US economy.  Formerly worshipped by the whole world, the dollar is now snubbed by governments, investors, and bankers. Underpinned by foreign capital inflows, those flows are not now enough to keep the dollar afloat. This issue addresses the reasons behind the fall of the US dollar and how the slide of the US currency has impacted the Puerto Rican economy.

The sub-prime crisis in the US has led to record home foreclosures, some lenders going out of business, and financial institutions suffering multibillion losses as mortgage-backed investments went sour. Many argue that this has already unleashed a cascading effect throughout financial intermediaries and other areas of the economy. Though apparently not as severe as in the US, there is evidence that sub-prime lending did take place in PR and now the financial industry is facing this and other demons. The end result is that in a credit crunch, lenders stop lending and credit becomes tough to obtain. We attempt to answer the question whether we are currently in the midst of a credit crunch or not.

Undoubtedly, the PR economy is going through its worst time in the past twenty years. The poor performance in 2006 proved to be just the preamble of a lingering recession. The onslaught is coming from every direction: budget shortfalls, exhausted consumers, skyrocketing oil prices, gridlock between the Executive and the Legislature, anemic housing market and, to make matters worse, an economic slowdown in the US. With recession also looming in the mainland, the much-needed relief for Puerto Rico does not seem to be around the corner. This issue reviews the performance of both the US and the island’s economy in fiscal 2007. It also includes HCCG forecasts up to 2010, and surmises on the most likely scenarios and challenges ahead for PR.  This is an election year and the number one issue has to be the economy.

You cannot wear it or display it in your living room but black gold has experienced a similar trend as yellow or white gold. Yet, in each case the underlying reasons may be different. On September 2003, the price of crude oil in NYMEX was $25/barrel. After a series of events, the price kept escalating and by January 3, 2008, the price was $100.05/barrel, a 400% increase. As a result, gasoline retail prices in Puerto Rico rose from 30 cents per liter in 2003 to 78 cents by November 2007. What drives this trend? Is it China’s insatiable demand for oil, or war and conflicts in some producer countries, or bad weather, or the dollar depreciation, or diminishing oil reserves, among others? Find out in this issue, what is the principal cause of this price explosion, how this fact affects Puerto Rico, and what the future will bring us.