Tag: Puerto Rico Economic Pulse©

The local economy’s transformation will require a renewed understanding of Puerto Rico’s challenges and opportunities as it slowly comes out of the current recession. This issue examines the Island’s economic outlook and new economic trends without any reference to public policy. Emerging consumption and production patterns are thus analyzed without assuming that the government can or will provide the appropriate incentives. New consumption trends are now becoming noticeable and, more importantly, Puerto Rico’s production base is in the midst of a profound transformation. The opening of new export and import markets will continue to provide challenges but, almost unnoticed until recently, will also offer immense business opportunities. The world economy changed radically almost 15 years ago and Puerto Rico was left behind. If anything positive is to come out of the recession, it will be a decisive push towards a definitive embrace of world markets.

The Puerto Rican economy is in the midst of a long and deep recession, which is expected to leave permanent effects on the Island’s economy. In this sense, much remains to be seen given existing economic trends and public policies as well as the limited impact of what traditionally have been PR’s engines of growth, what can we conclude about the island’s economy. In our opinion and despite all the negatives, it is still possible to transform Puerto Rico. This first issue of a two part series takes a look at some of the main concerns and provides a long-term view of key economic variables that shed light on the structural causes of the current situation. Some of these effects were clearly imposed on the PR economy. Others were not. Find out what these are and how they could evolve if public policy does not deal with them. Part II (July issue) will examine the business models and consumer of the future, as well as emerging economic opportunities.

Since 1899, the US dollar is the official currency of Puerto Rico. In economic terms, the island acts as an official dollarized country. In theory, PR should then benefit from the relatively low inflation experienced by the US economy during the past few years. However, this advantage has disappeared in PR over the past decade. According to official numbers, the difference between the PR and US inflations over the past 5 years was 11.2% higher in PR than in the US. This gap indicates something is wrong with the way the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is computed in Puerto Rico. Even more disturbing is the fact that since December 2009 or five months into 2010, the PR Department of Labor has not issued any new data on inflation. What then is wrong with the new CPI index, which was published in August 2007? This issue reviews some of the causes, effects, and possible solutions for this serious problem that affects all in Puerto Rico.  

Since 2006 to the present, Puerto Rico’s economy has shifted away from real economic growth. This particular cycle has been reinforced by a global financial crisis that damaged the financial system’s ability to channel savings to productive investment. All economic sectors, including households and businesses are struggling with surplus housing, buildings, equipment, and accumulated debt. Virtually every industry has shed jobs in the past two years. Bank share prices have fallen dramatically and households’ wealth has shrunk by $19 billion or 89% since 2004. And if consumers feel less rich, they are less inclined to spend. With a push from regulators, banks are less willing to lend: they have tightened loan standards. Recovery in this environment is often slow and weak but not impossible. Rebalancing PR’s banking is at the forefront. This issue examines some of the reasons for the recent bank mergers.  

Fiscal 2009 marked a milestone with the harshest worldwide economic crisis since the Great Depression. The crumble of several financial giants at the end of 2008 sparked a crisis that ripped through the entire world with unknown strength.  Recovery has already started in the US mainland, but jitter and fear have not disappeared. Puerto Rico has also felt the heat and is immersed in a protracted slump that threatens to extend to five consecutive years.  The truth is that the PR economy remains off the path of sustainable growth and desperately needs to restore growth.  Some meager gains, mostly as a result of temporary inflows from the mainland, could mislead the public regarding the dismal situation of our economy. This issue of Pulse analyzes what really lies beneath the recent glimmer of hopes. It evaluates economic events in fiscal 2009 and presents our forecasts thru fiscal 2012.

In the decades following World War II, Puerto Rico was hailed as a success story in Latin America (LA). The island sustained impressive rates of real economic growth and raised its domestic living standards. The transformation and modernization of this economy thru manufacturing, attracted the attention of its Southern neighbors. PR played a role model. Nowadays, it is different. PR is immersed in a deep recession with no apparent immediate light at the end of the tunnel. Two thousand miles South, Peru’s economy shines because of its strong macroeconomic performance, low inflation, and fiscal surpluses (7.3% real growth, 3.1% inflation, and $1.4b fiscal surplus). This was not always the case. Twenty years ago, Peru faced -13% growth, 7,482% hyperinflation, and huge fiscal deficits approaching 10% of GDP. Find out if Puerto Rico can learn some valuable lessons from Peru’s economic policies.

As we start the New Year, it is wise to review the economic events of the past year. In 2009, the PR economy continued into its 3-year old recession and survival seems to be the name of the game. The labor market lost 40,000 jobs in different sectors and unemployment increased. The government adopted painful policies, which included the announced reduction of almost 15,000 public jobs by January 2010 and imposed new taxes during 2009. With less income and jobs, consumers made fewer purchases, including cars, compared with 2008. The financial system posted record loan losses and felt the wave of the global financial crisis. A new President in the US addressed one of the largest fiscal rescues in US history. A new Governor in PR took office with the promise of change. The island expects to benefit from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) and the local or “Criollo” Plan (PEC). Despite poor results in 2009, there is the hope of a new year when we can start all over again.

Governor Fortuño has selected the Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to redirect PR’s economic development strategy and steer the island out of its current 3-year old recession. PPPs are forecast to create 99,735 new jobs and attract $6.2 billion investments thru 2013. Will this strategy work? Mega projects such as the Caribbean Riviera in the old Roosevelt Roads navy facility and the Science City in the old penitentiary rely on private partners for financing. Betting on PPPs, implies big gains or catastrophic losses for Puerto Rico. This issue of PR Pulse analyzes the PPP concept. It aims to answer how these partnerships have worked in other countries; successes and failures; economic sectors and countries that have used them successfully or why they have failed. Find out the challenges facing PPPs in PR and what can be done to leave behind the current recession.

Of the 1.673 million women age 16 years and over in CY 2008 in PR, 610,000, or 36.5%, were labor force participants—working or looking for work. They are projected to account for 44% of the labor force by 2020. Of 177,000 self-employed in 2008, 43,000 or 24% were women. The unemployment rate for women was 4.4% compared to 7% for men. This is no small accomplishment since their labor force participation rate in 1970 was a meager 29%. Over the same period, the rate for men fell gradually from 71% in 1970 to 55% in 2008. Find out which economic sector provided more jobs to these women; which occupation has the largest percentage of female employed in PR; whether education played a role in this increasing participation; and if they are earning as much as their male counterparts. In addition, this article discusses the impact of the current fiscal policy on female labor participants.

Puerto Rico has not gone unscathed from the worldwide financial havoc in 2009 and which we discussed in our September issue of Economic Pulse. The big quake has placed more strain on an already jolted local economy.  Internal as well as external factors have blended to pound the PR economy and sink it in its worst crisis since the 70’s.  Getting a recipe to put the economy back on its feet is not a simple task.  However, to find a way out we have to identify first the external forces that affect the economy as well as those setbacks originated within the island. This is a must if the island is to adopt an effective strategy. In this issue, we analyze the roots of the forces that afflict the island economy and present some ideas for the cure.