Tag: H. Calero

How far is Puerto Rico from becoming a Bio-Island? A new public policy is geared to taking PR in that direction. But, is PR equipped with the basic educational endowments needed for this new development phase? Educational outcomes indicate there is a wide gap between our current educational level and the state’s policy goal. Proficiency levels in Math and Science tests are low. Reducing high school dropouts and the need to increase the skills of labor are essential ingredients if PR wants to get ahead in the race for high quality education. This edition of Economic Pulse analyzes how biotechnology and R&D can work if education plays center stage in the island’s economy.

What is the role of agriculture within the PR economy?  What would happen if food imports were suddenly interrupted? Agriculture is central to any economy and Puerto Rico is no exception. It is more than farming since it touches jobs, animal welfare, socio-economic and environmental issues. Today’s agricultural industry is changing as a result of global awareness to the growing importance of environmental concerns and key issues such as the socio-economic development of rural communities and world hunger. World agricultural production must double to meet the needs of an estimated additional 3.5 billion people in 2050. This edition of Pulse analyzes recent developments within the international agricultural sector and explains what are the challenges and how PR is guiding its policy.

Studies by the Federal Reserve Board have shown that an increase in housing wealth leads to an increase in long-run consumption 1.5 times greater than stock wealth increases. Homeownership in Puerto Rico is estimated at around 80% of households. Several arguments support this theory. For instance, home prices are less volatile than stock prices. Stocks are highly concentrated among high-income individuals. Finally, stocks are subject to capital gain taxes and early withdrawal penalties.  In contrast, housing wealth receives a more favorable tax treatment. Will future gains in housing wealth require a healthy mortgage banking industry and an efficient construction industry in PR? Currently the mortgage banking industry is facing tough times. In addition, the signs of a slowing construction industry and declining stock prices, raised concerns about what would be the source of household wealth for the upcoming years.

The PR economy is going through one of its worst times over the past 20 years. While most world economies are defying wars and political turmoil to grow at impressive rates, the island economy has retreated. Even worse, the economy is already in recession.  Many local setbacks and adverse winds blowing from the mainland threaten to derail a timid recovery. This issue reviews the current stage of our economy, highlighting the main obstacles to a coveted rebound. We also present our forecasts up to 2009 and address the most likely economic scenarios here as well as for the mainland. We invite you to view PR’s short-term economic future through our looking glass.

In 2006, Puerto Rico replaced part of the old and fatigued excise tax system with a new one: a sales tax, the UVT, Uniform Value Tax. By shifting to a 7% sales tax, PR has moved in the right direction and joined the many countries in the world that rely on a consumption tax to balance their budgets. However, instead of being part of a long-term plan, the new tax system responds to the urgent needs of a government struggling with mounting debts and current deficits. In fact, many expect the sales tax to be the savior of the budget and end the mess in public finances. This issue provides insights on a system that is novel to Puerto Rico and which opens the door for a more complete analysis of the overall Puerto Rican economy.

Panama is experiencing an economic boom like never before. Known worldwide for the Panama Canal, one of the modern marvels from the past century, this country has managed to overcome pessimism and doubts, and is proving what a small country can do.   A very open economy, which relies heavily on the export of services, Panama is embarked on ambitious projects to take the country to new heights.  The Canal expansion, an avalanche of magnificent skyscrapers, an unstoppable international financial center and an upcoming free trade agreement with the US are among the strengths and achievements that Panama can proudly boast.  Find out how PR can draw some valuable lessons from Panama.

Cuba is still a kind of black box for many of us. Despite the many cultural, historical, idiosyncratic and even familiar bonds with Cuba, Puerto Rico has no economic relations with its neighbor.  Nonetheless, after nearly five decades of a very centralized economy, some recent developments are signaling that the current socioeconomic system in Cuba is about to change. It is definitely time for us to know more about Cuba and understand the implications for Puerto Rico of the foregone Cuban transition towards a market economy. When will Cuba open? Will it entail the demise of tourism and manufacturing in Puerto Rico? Or, will this transformation open up opportunities for PR? Do not miss this interesting analysis on this very strategic issue for Puerto Rico.

The banking industry in Puerto Rico has enjoyed record profitability and relatively low to none failure rates in recent years. This scenario contrasted with the 1980’s when turbulent economic conditions, the crisis in the savings and loan industry, and a highly volatile interest rate environment placed the banking industry both in the US and in PR under severe stress. More recently, the banking sector in PR has suffered a death of a thousand cuts. Will this sector heal from its main wounds: the living and dynamic yield curve and the ongoing economic downturn in the island? What does an inverted yield curve suggest for the future of this economy? Find out how movements in short and long term rates are affecting local banks’ performance in Puerto Rico.